Or maybe they will launch Win 12 with optional TPM support.

Imho making the OS(es) TPM only cannot be good for their business, many people are still on Win 10 with no intention to switch, since their motheboard does not support TPM and do not want to upgrade PC / waste PCI-E slot on TPM extension.

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Imho making the OS(es) TPM only cannot be good for their business

It is good for their business.

There are very few people who turn away from M$ because they disagree with the TPM requirement.

There are some more people who whine and complain about the TPM requirement. Note the subtle difference :-) Experience has shown that most of these people have no real problem. They find a way, for example buy new hardware. It was a success for M$ if you buy new hardware.

In the long run, M$ wants to make more use of your TPM. Therefore I do not think that they see any reason to drop it.

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