Unless Twitter completely turns things around (spoiler, they won’t) I expect Threads will slowly grow over the next several months; both in users and features.
At the moment Threads isn’t ready (from a functionality standpoint) to absorb Twitter, but it will be the more time they have.
From a Mastodon/Fediverse standpoint the sooner Twitter falls over, the better. (Assuming it’s ready to scale and take on users, I think probably, but who knows.)
In short unless something dramatic happens I expect Threads (for better or worse) will be around for a long time.
Maybe. I think there’s a lot of dislike towards Elon out there, people are just looking for an alternative to Twitter. The recent surge in popularity for threads is just proof of that.
I’m more disgusted and disappointed with humanity than surprised.
There’s been a lot of discussion on here lately about the flaws of federated social media, but you know what the biggest one is? No marketing to point out to all these dipshits that there’s more to the Internet than Zuckerberg’s bullshit.
The question here is: how many users should we expect Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram, with all the cash hoard of Meta behind it, to be able to get together for a new app?
30 mil sounds like peanuts in that context. Aren’t there like a billion people on Meta’s properties?
It is peanuts to Meta but not to others like Masterdon and the Fediverse. It’s also enough of a message to the likes of Twitter to be seen as a threat.
It goes to show how monopolized the social converse is these days online.
Makes me wonder if they’re not using Instagram user base to inflate the numbers to make the social network look more enticing to new users as well with a success for investors.
Well, Threads has an estimated 30+ million users already. Threads will easily have more daily active users than the entirety of the Fediverse if even just 1% stick around.
Threads would have 150% the number of users in that case, and that’s assuming the app stops growing.
I’ve gotten a good amount of pushback (well reasoned, but pushback nonetheless) about my position on how we need to think of where we fit into all of this. But realistically we are tiny. ActivityPub—if it ever comes to Threads—can be easily bastardized and made proprietary by Meta unilaterally.
We’ve seen it more times than we can even remember. Microsoft did it with IE, Google is doing it with Chrome and RCS (for those who haven’t seen my other comments: no, Android RCS is not an open standard. Google closed it with proprietary layers which is why no other messaging apps are allowed to access Google’s RCS save for a few like Samsung), and even Mastodon.
That’s right: Mastodon has not adapted ActivityPub fully to standard and instead opts to go it’s own way. And now other projects are hiving off and—you guessed it—implemented Mastodon’s approach rather than the official ActivityPub standard.
At least according to ActivityPub co-creator Evan Prodromou (on the Changelog podcast episode “Into the Fediverse” on 2023-02-24 around the 10 minute mark). He isn’t putting down Mastodon at all; but it stands to show just how easily a single big player can hijack things. We got lucky that Mastodon didn’t radically pivot and integrate hostile practices.
But Meta will. We all know this. This is what capitalists do. They gain nothing by allowing competition, even if minor.
Edit: in case I wasn’t clear, I’m not attacking Mastodon. I love Mastodon. I don’t love the NDA that the creator signed with Meta. I don’t like his stances regarding Meta. I understand things do need to deviate at points, as is the nature of all software. I’m a software engineer myself (albeit not for anything related to ActivityPub or social media). It is more an example of how quickly things can go sideways with just one big player willing it into existence.
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I’ll be shocked if Threads is relevant within two months.
You could say that about Facebook and yet it trundles on.
Threads will be relevant because Meta has the money to keep making it relevant.
Meta VR would have died by any other company, but Meta VR will stick around for quite a while because Zuckerberg money.
Unless Twitter completely turns things around (spoiler, they won’t) I expect Threads will slowly grow over the next several months; both in users and features.
At the moment Threads isn’t ready (from a functionality standpoint) to absorb Twitter, but it will be the more time they have.
From a Mastodon/Fediverse standpoint the sooner Twitter falls over, the better. (Assuming it’s ready to scale and take on users, I think probably, but who knows.)
In short unless something dramatic happens I expect Threads (for better or worse) will be around for a long time.
Maybe. I think there’s a lot of dislike towards Elon out there, people are just looking for an alternative to Twitter. The recent surge in popularity for threads is just proof of that.
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Instagram users with FOMO syndrome.
If you’re already accepting of Facebook, design flaws, and privacy concerns aren’t going to sway you from “The new thing”.
Uhg. Cannibalizing the bird app for something equally obnoxious. These corporations are playing us for Suckers …
That is utterly crazy. I was not expecting this.
I’m more disgusted and disappointed with humanity than surprised.
There’s been a lot of discussion on here lately about the flaws of federated social media, but you know what the biggest one is? No marketing to point out to all these dipshits that there’s more to the Internet than Zuckerberg’s bullshit.
People who use Twitter have been desperate for an alternative. Surprised it took one of the big corps this long to throw their hat in the ring, tbh.
The question here is: how many users should we expect Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram, with all the cash hoard of Meta behind it, to be able to get together for a new app?
30 mil sounds like peanuts in that context. Aren’t there like a billion people on Meta’s properties?
It is peanuts to Meta but not to others like Masterdon and the Fediverse. It’s also enough of a message to the likes of Twitter to be seen as a threat.
It goes to show how monopolized the social converse is these days online.
Makes me wonder if they’re not using Instagram user base to inflate the numbers to make the social network look more enticing to new users as well with a success for investors.
How many of those accounts are bots?
How many of the humans will still be posting in 30 days?
Well, Threads has an estimated 30+ million users already. Threads will easily have more daily active users than the entirety of the Fediverse if even just 1% stick around.
Threads would have 150% the number of users in that case, and that’s assuming the app stops growing.
I’ve gotten a good amount of pushback (well reasoned, but pushback nonetheless) about my position on how we need to think of where we fit into all of this. But realistically we are tiny. ActivityPub—if it ever comes to Threads—can be easily bastardized and made proprietary by Meta unilaterally.
We’ve seen it more times than we can even remember. Microsoft did it with IE, Google is doing it with Chrome and RCS (for those who haven’t seen my other comments: no, Android RCS is not an open standard. Google closed it with proprietary layers which is why no other messaging apps are allowed to access Google’s RCS save for a few like Samsung), and even Mastodon.
That’s right: Mastodon has not adapted ActivityPub fully to standard and instead opts to go it’s own way. And now other projects are hiving off and—you guessed it—implemented Mastodon’s approach rather than the official ActivityPub standard.
At least according to ActivityPub co-creator Evan Prodromou (on the Changelog podcast episode “Into the Fediverse” on 2023-02-24 around the 10 minute mark). He isn’t putting down Mastodon at all; but it stands to show just how easily a single big player can hijack things. We got lucky that Mastodon didn’t radically pivot and integrate hostile practices.
But Meta will. We all know this. This is what capitalists do. They gain nothing by allowing competition, even if minor.
Edit: in case I wasn’t clear, I’m not attacking Mastodon. I love Mastodon. I don’t love the NDA that the creator signed with Meta. I don’t like his stances regarding Meta. I understand things do need to deviate at points, as is the nature of all software. I’m a software engineer myself (albeit not for anything related to ActivityPub or social media). It is more an example of how quickly things can go sideways with just one big player willing it into existence.
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Not really that crazy since Instagram has over 2 billion active users month. 30 million is less than 2% of that.