The billionaire philanthropist in an interview with German newspaper Handelsblatt, shared his thoughts on Artificial general intelligence, climate change, and the scope of AI in the future.
Bill Gates feels Generative AI has plateaued, says GPT-5 will not be any better::The billionaire philanthropist in an interview with German newspaper Handelsblatt, shared his thoughts on Artificial general intelligence, climate change, and the scope of AI in the future.
They didn’t, AFAIK. It was a NYT article that quoted someone who made a similar prediction:
Once the Wright Brothers proved flight was possible, some assumed it was just a pointless rich play thing. Famed astronomer William H. Pickering said, “The expense would be prohibitive to any but the capitalist who could use his own yacht.”
I’m not sure I’d say it’s plateaued today but I definitely think machine learning is going to hit a wall soon. Some tech keeps improving until physical limits stop progress but I see generative AI as being more like self-driving cars where the “easy” parts end up solved but the last 10% is insanely hard.
There’s also the economic reality of scaling. Maybe the “hard” problems could, in theory, be easily solved with enough compute power. We’ll eventually solve those problems but it’s going to be on Nvidia’s timeline, not OpenAI’s.
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Bill Gates views on AI are about as insightful as Gordon Ramsey’s on orbital mechanics.
I’ve been saying this for years!
Maybe, but I am sure the tools the AIs can use will improve making the AIs jobs easier and thus the AI more efficient. I hope he is right tbh.
Eww, as a long time Linux user I need to take a shower now. I feel dirty.
Bill, you’re not even AT Microsoft anymore.
Edit: AND, you think a box of Pizza Rolls cost nearly 3 times as much as they actually do. I’m not trusting your opinion, man
Let me save you a click: he doesn’t say anything interesting about why he thinks this.
“GPT-4 should be enough for anyone.” -Bill Gates
If it comes from Billyboy, he could be right in the sense that it won’t get any better for the filthy commoners
And the Wright Brothers said heavier than air flight would only ever be an amusement for the rich, and never commercially viable.
Even taking Gates’ qualifications at face value doesn’t mean he’s actually right.
He just has money, which gives him and too many others the idea that he has expertise.
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Source on that quote from the Wright brothers? Because they never said that as far as I’m aware.
They didn’t, AFAIK. It was a NYT article that quoted someone who made a similar prediction:
Isn’t this the same guy that said we won’t ever need more than 64K of RAM?
640k (the conventional limit in DOS), and he didn’t actually say it.
I’m not sure I’d say it’s plateaued today but I definitely think machine learning is going to hit a wall soon. Some tech keeps improving until physical limits stop progress but I see generative AI as being more like self-driving cars where the “easy” parts end up solved but the last 10% is insanely hard.
There’s also the economic reality of scaling. Maybe the “hard” problems could, in theory, be easily solved with enough compute power. We’ll eventually solve those problems but it’s going to be on Nvidia’s timeline, not OpenAI’s.
Yes, especially when you consider that the human brain runs on 15W of power!