Did we get angry when computers cut accounting staff by 75% because one person and QuickBooks can do the job of a whole fleet of people? No. AI will change jobs in the same way computerization changed jobs. The same way the combine changed farming and the cotton gin changed textiles.
What we need to ACTUALLY BE WORRIED ABOUT is what we failed to be concerned with last time. The productivity increase and job elimination just went to the fucking top of the ladder. If that happens again we will have massive unemployment.
We need to tax the shit out of companies using AI to replace humans, and start setting up the infrastructure for the inevitable UBI that further automation will require.
Next week’s headline will be something like, “Gizmodo readership drops 46% as garbled, incoherent, AI-generated content floods formerly-useful news website.”
History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.
What we are seeing is very similar to what it must have been like for folks seeing machines take over and greatly simplify labor intensive tasks during the Industrial Revolution. Textile mills moved from hundreds of laborers making cloth on hand driven looms to machines churning out fabrics at a blistering pace. The short term effect was a major problem for those laborers who were displaced with a long term effect of creating a more efficient economy, with cheaper products for everyone and most people benefiting from a higher standard of living.
This sort of disruption happened again as computers took off. The Digital Revolution displaced many office workers. Many manual processes were replaced with digital sensors, switches and machines. For example, it was no longer necessary to have huge floors in an office building where typists manually copied documents. Again, a large number of workers suffered a major short term impact, but the long term outcome has been a net positive for society.
And things got disrupted again with the rise of the internet. Having lived through this one personally, the echoes of it are quite clear. The Internet disrupted a lot of existing systems. The rise of internet commerce was the death knell of brick and mortar businesses. The Internet was going to replace everything from banking to schooling. And ya, it caused a lot of job loss at all the stores it drove out of business. And it did drive stores out of business and continues to do so.
I suspect that, in 50 years or so, we’ll look back at this time as the beginning of the “AI Revolution”, and see it as an overall net positive. That isn’t to say that there won’t be people negatively impacted by the change. Writers and artists are very obvious casualties. Many other workers will find their jobs affected by AI as well. However, it’s also worth noting that we are nowhere near strong, general purpose AI. And what AI is likely to become, for now, is a tool to increase the productivity of professionals. It will mean that fewer people are needed to perform a task. But, there will still be a need for people to oversee the and direct the AI. The Industrial Revolution wasn’t the end of the world, neither was the Digital Revolution or the Internet Revolution. The AI Revolution won’t be the end of the world either.
The industrial revolution and adoption of computers also introduced a ton of new jobs. We haven’t seen any evidence of this happening with AI. AI will eventually come for all of us, it needs to either be curtailed, which is unrealistic and stifling, or we will need to radically shift our economy, which is even more unrealistic. The only other option is collapse. AI has been eating jobs behind the scenes for years without anyone noticing, and there has been no comparable expansion of new jobs like previous revolutions. This was all true ages before the current controversy.
The short term effect was a major problem for those laborers who were displaced with a long term effect of creating a more efficient economy, with cheaper products for everyone and most people benefiting from a higher standard of living.
This first part is very understated on retellings. The major problems were not limited to displaced laborers, but also the rising industrialist class which took advantage to them to the extent we had a phase of child workers getting their limbs crushed by machinery and then discarded. The higher standards of living relied greatly on fierce efforts from labor movements to guarantee basic rights and dignity for the workers and their families.
It also comes to mind that for all the wonders of the internet, a lot of people had a better conditions working in brick and mortar stores than they now do in the infamous Amazon warehouses. Maybe we are falling short on this side of progress.
Biggest difference between this and the industrial revolution and general automation is that education used to be your saving grace. This person could’ve been fluent in 10 languages and AI would still replace them.
This is such an important point that AI advocates keep glossing over. It’s not even like there is an amount of education that will make up for it. All intellectual work is in line for being automated.
Automation that lets people go from tilling farmland to writing about what they are passionate for was (mostly) great. Some may mourn the loss of artisan crafts but the net result was positive. Automation that takes people from their writing jobs is not so great. Where are they supposed to go to now? To AI? They don’t own the platform, it’s not gonna get them a living wage. How are they supposed to afford this “cheaper stuff” with no money? Do they even want to go to AI if they even had the chance? Many people who work on writing and art would like to just be able to keep at it.
It’s easy and optimistic to expect that because it turned out well before it might do so again, but think of what the invention of automobiles meant for the horse population. While I doubt humans would go away so easily, with the automation of writing, arts, customer service, coding, we might be driven into sweatshop jobs rather than benefit in any way. Unable to outperform AI, many people will have to undercut machinery instead. What a future would that be…
I hope you’re right. Something about the scope and type of change we’re seeing here feels quite different. It can be mistake too to assume that things will go the way they usually have. I wouldn’t advise anyone to be complacent. We had to have something close to a second civil war in the US to get things like an 8 hour day.
I suspect that, in 50 years or so, we’ll look back at this time as the beginning of the “AI Revolution”, and see it as an overall net positive.
For the wealthy, yes. Investors love having less mouths to feed.
Writers and artists are very obvious casualties. Many other workers will find their jobs affected by AI as well. However, it’s also worth noting that we are nowhere near strong, general purpose AI.
That’s part of the problem. We’ll be lowering our standards to accept whatever formulated method of culture experience gets spoon fed to us, while true art goes by the wayside, along with creativity. Granted that’s already happening in many entertainment industries, this just further accelerates the fad-chasing and reduces the set of levers that executives have to just tweaking formulas until the audiences match with their wallets. A true AGI might have an inkling or spark of creativity versus the formulaic results you get from model driven AI.
And what AI is likely to become, for now, is a tool to increase the productivity of professionals. It will mean that fewer people are needed to perform a task. But, there will still be a need for people to oversee the and direct the AI.
Fewer people, meanwhile our population continues to increase. That means housing and healthcare continue in the trajectory of being less accessible to the majority.
The Industrial Revolution wasn’t the end of the world, neither was the Digital Revolution or the Internet Revolution. The AI Revolution won’t be the end of the world either.
I have to say, I disagree. The end of the world doesn’t come abruptly but in the form of a slow decline. I look around at young people who go into horrendous debt for a higher education that doesn’t even benefit them, which then delays the timeframe they can start house shopping, only to find a housing market that’s beyond the reach of even some of our most highly paid professionals. I see articles like “why 125k isn’t enough anymore” and then the concepts of being “financially sound” being around 3 times higher than what people actually make.
I look at what you wrote and I’d love to believe in an optimistic future where this elevates us further out of the mundane and makes time for more creative endeavors and satisfying healthy work, but I instead see a bleak future with less opportunity and a higher dependence on public assistance programs for the majority just to get by.
Automation doesn’t necessarily mean a better quality of life. We’re fatter than ever, more depressed than ever, and we still work more than a medieval peasant.
I always bring this up, automation is what made slavery profitable in the south. When the cotton gin was invented slaveowners didn’t start using less slaves for the same out put of cotton. They started buying more slaves to increase the output of cotton with a higher profit margin. That’s what happens anytime we see a new form of automation, companies don’t reduce work hours and keep the pay the same, they try to increase production and the workers that were replaced will be made to do some other menial task machines can’t do, and they will also be made to work 40hrs a week. This whole automation thing increasing our quality of life is a total fucking myth.
That’s what happens anytime we see a new form of automation, companies don’t reduce work hours and keep the pay the same, they try to increase production and the workers that were replaced will be made to do some other menial task machines can’t do, and they will also be made to work 40hrs a week.
I understand your point, and it is probably true for some companies and some jobs. However, it doesn’t apply to telephone switchboard operators, bank tellers, movie projectionists, pinsetters, lamplighters, elevator operators, etc. These are jobs which don’t have an impact on the production or manufacturing of a product.
I always bring this up, automation is what made slavery profitable in the south. When the cotton gin was invented slaveowners didn’t start using less slaves for the same out put of cotton.
I understand that you’re talking about the cotton gin because it improved productivity, but the cotton gin used in the early 1800’s is an example of mechanization, not automation. It’s like a reel lawnmower, which is an improvement over a scythe, but there’s nothing automatic about it. This distinction doesn’t make much difference here, in the context of productivity.
I sort of agree in that the fruits of automation shoud be distributed through government and taxes. Its cool that things get more efficient and the world isnt a zero sum game anymore, but if everything in exess of that zero goes to only a few people things won’t get better for everyone.
At a certain point automation becomes so efficient that it becomes unprofitable to produce certain goods because they can essentially be made for free. So then corporations don’t invest in it and so it is no longer produced. It’s already happened with other things, but this is somewhere where the public sector could step in.
It’s tricky I don’t know how it would be best regulated, but companies are run like totalitarian dictatorships. Large companies, especially public companies should be regulated to benefit the people and the workers. Right now publicly traded companies are incentivized legally to maximamize profit regardless if it’s at the expense of employees, the environment and citizens. Maybe federally mandating a coop structure for businesses so businesses are run more democratically could be another solution.
This notion that medevil peasants worked less and were somehow better off is ridiculous. I’d gladly work an extra 20 hours a week for indoor plumbing, electricity, cars, cell phones, modern medical care, education, lack of dragons,…
The wealthy have done a fantastic job of taking those away, along with social security and retirement. Be clear, your plumbing, electricity, cars, and cell phones are absolutely on the chopping block as the gap gets wider.
I have access to an emergency room in exchange for bankruptcy, and higher education is only attainable through a loan that rivals the size of a mortgage from 10 years ago.
Quite frankly no, due to them being cost prohibitive. Myself and many others forego healthcare due to the bills we know we can’t afford, thanks to obscenely high deductibles.
No, community colleges and trade schools are also prohibitively expensive for most people unless you take out a student loan that rivals what mortgages were just 10 years ago.
It’s as if you don’t go outside and touch grass, or talk to common people. I’m guessing we should just pull ourselves up by our bootstraps, except we don’t have socks, let alone shoes or boots with straps to even tug on. Fuck you’re annoying.
“Do you have access? blah blah blah fucking blah I don’t read shit or have a clue about what reality actually looks like”
10 years ago I replaced an entire department with custom software that automated their jobs. The department did manual data entry into an ERP system, feeding it the manufacturing data from the previous day. We did not automate it to be evil, we did it because humans make lots of mistakes. If you ask the human, they definitely typed it correctly and it there is a problem it’s a computer “bug”.
Miraculously the automated system has made exactly 0 typing errors in 10 years.
This is exactly what I was thinking. People need to start understanding this and evolve to stay ahead of what jobs AI can now take. And also Spanish is a really easy language to learn, so I’m not surprised that a machine could perform the same task easily
While it is true that AI can replace a lot of personnel in certain jobs, it also makes it possible for the average person to use that same AI to start small businesses and compete with large corporations, various AI technology products are open to everyone it’s not like they only benefit large corporations.
Capitalism was a mistake. All of this is just its flaws being taken to its logical extreme.
AI being used to translate stuff isn’t a bad thing on its own, it’s not severely damaging the careers and in many cases the lives of educated people just because it exists. It does so in the context of this system which hasn’t really been working for a while and continues to fail. AI has its dangers regardless, for sure but it doesn’t necessarily have to spelll doom in all the ways it has been.
You are not logged in. However you can subscribe from another Fediverse account, for example Lemmy or Mastodon. To do this, paste the following into the search field of your instance: !technology@lemmy.world
This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
This whole thing is just stupid.
Did we get angry when computers cut accounting staff by 75% because one person and QuickBooks can do the job of a whole fleet of people? No. AI will change jobs in the same way computerization changed jobs. The same way the combine changed farming and the cotton gin changed textiles.
What we need to ACTUALLY BE WORRIED ABOUT is what we failed to be concerned with last time. The productivity increase and job elimination just went to the fucking top of the ladder. If that happens again we will have massive unemployment.
We need to tax the shit out of companies using AI to replace humans, and start setting up the infrastructure for the inevitable UBI that further automation will require.
Well, yeah, people did get angry. Just like when conveyor belts, weaving machines, and steam engines were introduced.
Universal basic income, have AI and automated roles taxed as people. Self checkout? Well you still have the pay the tax as if that was an employee.
if y’all thought capitalism was bad, it’s just gonna get worse lol
Next week’s headline will be something like, “Gizmodo readership drops 46% as garbled, incoherent, AI-generated content floods formerly-useful news website.”
removed by mod
500 words of gibberish and a picture of the next rumoured Apple product is all you need apparently
Sabba sabba sabba sabba. Sounds like Spanish to me!
Why are companies turning evil as they grow?
It’s a little dance called capitalism:
Money. No such thing as “enough” when you’re a corporation.
History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.
What we are seeing is very similar to what it must have been like for folks seeing machines take over and greatly simplify labor intensive tasks during the Industrial Revolution. Textile mills moved from hundreds of laborers making cloth on hand driven looms to machines churning out fabrics at a blistering pace. The short term effect was a major problem for those laborers who were displaced with a long term effect of creating a more efficient economy, with cheaper products for everyone and most people benefiting from a higher standard of living.
This sort of disruption happened again as computers took off. The Digital Revolution displaced many office workers. Many manual processes were replaced with digital sensors, switches and machines. For example, it was no longer necessary to have huge floors in an office building where typists manually copied documents. Again, a large number of workers suffered a major short term impact, but the long term outcome has been a net positive for society.
And things got disrupted again with the rise of the internet. Having lived through this one personally, the echoes of it are quite clear. The Internet disrupted a lot of existing systems. The rise of internet commerce was the death knell of brick and mortar businesses. The Internet was going to replace everything from banking to schooling. And ya, it caused a lot of job loss at all the stores it drove out of business. And it did drive stores out of business and continues to do so.
I suspect that, in 50 years or so, we’ll look back at this time as the beginning of the “AI Revolution”, and see it as an overall net positive. That isn’t to say that there won’t be people negatively impacted by the change. Writers and artists are very obvious casualties. Many other workers will find their jobs affected by AI as well. However, it’s also worth noting that we are nowhere near strong, general purpose AI. And what AI is likely to become, for now, is a tool to increase the productivity of professionals. It will mean that fewer people are needed to perform a task. But, there will still be a need for people to oversee the and direct the AI. The Industrial Revolution wasn’t the end of the world, neither was the Digital Revolution or the Internet Revolution. The AI Revolution won’t be the end of the world either.
The industrial revolution and adoption of computers also introduced a ton of new jobs. We haven’t seen any evidence of this happening with AI. AI will eventually come for all of us, it needs to either be curtailed, which is unrealistic and stifling, or we will need to radically shift our economy, which is even more unrealistic. The only other option is collapse. AI has been eating jobs behind the scenes for years without anyone noticing, and there has been no comparable expansion of new jobs like previous revolutions. This was all true ages before the current controversy.
Cool story bro
This first part is very understated on retellings. The major problems were not limited to displaced laborers, but also the rising industrialist class which took advantage to them to the extent we had a phase of child workers getting their limbs crushed by machinery and then discarded. The higher standards of living relied greatly on fierce efforts from labor movements to guarantee basic rights and dignity for the workers and their families.
It also comes to mind that for all the wonders of the internet, a lot of people had a better conditions working in brick and mortar stores than they now do in the infamous Amazon warehouses. Maybe we are falling short on this side of progress.
Your comment got me thinking. I think it’s time for tech workers to start unionizing. Getting ahead of the curve before we get replaced in 10 years.
Absolutely!
Biggest difference between this and the industrial revolution and general automation is that education used to be your saving grace. This person could’ve been fluent in 10 languages and AI would still replace them.
This is such an important point that AI advocates keep glossing over. It’s not even like there is an amount of education that will make up for it. All intellectual work is in line for being automated.
Automation that lets people go from tilling farmland to writing about what they are passionate for was (mostly) great. Some may mourn the loss of artisan crafts but the net result was positive. Automation that takes people from their writing jobs is not so great. Where are they supposed to go to now? To AI? They don’t own the platform, it’s not gonna get them a living wage. How are they supposed to afford this “cheaper stuff” with no money? Do they even want to go to AI if they even had the chance? Many people who work on writing and art would like to just be able to keep at it.
It’s easy and optimistic to expect that because it turned out well before it might do so again, but think of what the invention of automobiles meant for the horse population. While I doubt humans would go away so easily, with the automation of writing, arts, customer service, coding, we might be driven into sweatshop jobs rather than benefit in any way. Unable to outperform AI, many people will have to undercut machinery instead. What a future would that be…
I hope you’re right. Something about the scope and type of change we’re seeing here feels quite different. It can be mistake too to assume that things will go the way they usually have. I wouldn’t advise anyone to be complacent. We had to have something close to a second civil war in the US to get things like an 8 hour day.
For the wealthy, yes. Investors love having less mouths to feed.
That’s part of the problem. We’ll be lowering our standards to accept whatever formulated method of culture experience gets spoon fed to us, while true art goes by the wayside, along with creativity. Granted that’s already happening in many entertainment industries, this just further accelerates the fad-chasing and reduces the set of levers that executives have to just tweaking formulas until the audiences match with their wallets. A true AGI might have an inkling or spark of creativity versus the formulaic results you get from model driven AI.
Fewer people, meanwhile our population continues to increase. That means housing and healthcare continue in the trajectory of being less accessible to the majority.
I have to say, I disagree. The end of the world doesn’t come abruptly but in the form of a slow decline. I look around at young people who go into horrendous debt for a higher education that doesn’t even benefit them, which then delays the timeframe they can start house shopping, only to find a housing market that’s beyond the reach of even some of our most highly paid professionals. I see articles like “why 125k isn’t enough anymore” and then the concepts of being “financially sound” being around 3 times higher than what people actually make.
I look at what you wrote and I’d love to believe in an optimistic future where this elevates us further out of the mundane and makes time for more creative endeavors and satisfying healthy work, but I instead see a bleak future with less opportunity and a higher dependence on public assistance programs for the majority just to get by.
Automation doesn’t necessarily mean a better quality of life. We’re fatter than ever, more depressed than ever, and we still work more than a medieval peasant.
I always bring this up, automation is what made slavery profitable in the south. When the cotton gin was invented slaveowners didn’t start using less slaves for the same out put of cotton. They started buying more slaves to increase the output of cotton with a higher profit margin. That’s what happens anytime we see a new form of automation, companies don’t reduce work hours and keep the pay the same, they try to increase production and the workers that were replaced will be made to do some other menial task machines can’t do, and they will also be made to work 40hrs a week. This whole automation thing increasing our quality of life is a total fucking myth.
I understand your point, and it is probably true for some companies and some jobs. However, it doesn’t apply to telephone switchboard operators, bank tellers, movie projectionists, pinsetters, lamplighters, elevator operators, etc. These are jobs which don’t have an impact on the production or manufacturing of a product.
I understand that you’re talking about the cotton gin because it improved productivity, but the cotton gin used in the early 1800’s is an example of mechanization, not automation. It’s like a reel lawnmower, which is an improvement over a scythe, but there’s nothing automatic about it. This distinction doesn’t make much difference here, in the context of productivity.
I sort of agree in that the fruits of automation shoud be distributed through government and taxes. Its cool that things get more efficient and the world isnt a zero sum game anymore, but if everything in exess of that zero goes to only a few people things won’t get better for everyone.
Better policy is definitely needed. We could be living in a utopia right now working three days a week.
For that automation should be treated as a public resource rather than a private source of profits.
At a certain point automation becomes so efficient that it becomes unprofitable to produce certain goods because they can essentially be made for free. So then corporations don’t invest in it and so it is no longer produced. It’s already happened with other things, but this is somewhere where the public sector could step in.
It’s tricky I don’t know how it would be best regulated, but companies are run like totalitarian dictatorships. Large companies, especially public companies should be regulated to benefit the people and the workers. Right now publicly traded companies are incentivized legally to maximamize profit regardless if it’s at the expense of employees, the environment and citizens. Maybe federally mandating a coop structure for businesses so businesses are run more democratically could be another solution.
This notion that medevil peasants worked less and were somehow better off is ridiculous. I’d gladly work an extra 20 hours a week for indoor plumbing, electricity, cars, cell phones, modern medical care, education, lack of dragons,…
The wealthy have done a fantastic job of taking those away, along with social security and retirement. Be clear, your plumbing, electricity, cars, and cell phones are absolutely on the chopping block as the gap gets wider.
Do you not have access to medical care or education?
I have access to an emergency room in exchange for bankruptcy, and higher education is only attainable through a loan that rivals the size of a mortgage from 10 years ago.
Do you have access to clinics or family medicine?
Do you have access to community colleges and trade schools?
Quite frankly no, due to them being cost prohibitive. Myself and many others forego healthcare due to the bills we know we can’t afford, thanks to obscenely high deductibles.
No, community colleges and trade schools are also prohibitively expensive for most people unless you take out a student loan that rivals what mortgages were just 10 years ago.
It’s as if you don’t go outside and touch grass, or talk to common people. I’m guessing we should just pull ourselves up by our bootstraps, except we don’t have socks, let alone shoes or boots with straps to even tug on. Fuck you’re annoying.
“Do you have access? blah blah blah fucking blah I don’t read shit or have a clue about what reality actually looks like”
removed by mod
Headline should read:
“Software took my job, literally”
10 years ago I replaced an entire department with custom software that automated their jobs. The department did manual data entry into an ERP system, feeding it the manufacturing data from the previous day. We did not automate it to be evil, we did it because humans make lots of mistakes. If you ask the human, they definitely typed it correctly and it there is a problem it’s a computer “bug”.
Miraculously the automated system has made exactly 0 typing errors in 10 years.
This is exactly what I was thinking. People need to start understanding this and evolve to stay ahead of what jobs AI can now take. And also Spanish is a really easy language to learn, so I’m not surprised that a machine could perform the same task easily
While it is true that AI can replace a lot of personnel in certain jobs, it also makes it possible for the average person to use that same AI to start small businesses and compete with large corporations, various AI technology products are open to everyone it’s not like they only benefit large corporations.
AI was a mistake
Capitalism was a mistake. All of this is just its flaws being taken to its logical extreme.
AI being used to translate stuff isn’t a bad thing on its own, it’s not severely damaging the careers and in many cases the lives of educated people just because it exists. It does so in the context of this system which hasn’t really been working for a while and continues to fail. AI has its dangers regardless, for sure but it doesn’t necessarily have to spelll doom in all the ways it has been.